Trends in Agriculture
The Trends in Agriculture section of the SRUC report Rural and Agricultural Development: Maximising the potential in the islands of Orkney, Shetland and Outer Hebrides can be downloaded as a stand alone document from the link below. Data was extracted from both the June Agricultural Census (JAC) and the IACS to demonstrate trends in agricultural activity across the Islands alongside Cattle Tracing System (CTS) data. Some findings from this section of the report include:
- There was a 27% decline in full time occupiers and spouses of agricultural holdings in Orkney between 2000 and 2021, with 33% decline in Shetland over the same period. However there was a 31% increase in the Outer Hebrides that reflects some interesting reversal of longer-term trends in recent years.
- 57% of full time occupiers of agricultural businesses in Shetland were aged 65 and over in 2021, with 50% in the Outer Hebrides, and only 38% in Orkney (34% in the Rest of Scotland).
- The number of agricultural holdings carrying cattle has seen a long-term decline across Scotland, but also in each of the island groups. In 2021 there were c.77k cattle (cows, heifers, bulls, steers, calves) on 483 holdings in Orkney, c.5.9k cattle on 383 holdings in the Outer Hebrides and c.4.8k cattle on 151 Holdings in Shetland. The total number of cattle also declined across the island areas by 15-18% over the 2000 to 2021 period.
- In contrast to long term trends in Orkney and the Rest of Scotland, there was long term decline in the number of holdings carrying sheep in both Shetland and the Outer Hebrides over the 2000-2021 period. Outer Hebrides sheep numbers in 2021 (c.143k) were only 48% of what they were in 2000 (c.299k), compared to Shetland and Orkney where sheep numbers have been retained better (75% and 87% of the 2000 head count in 2021 respectively).
- Structural change continues - with an agricultural activity being consolidated on fewer businesses.
- The median calving interval in the Outer Hebrides was 373 days, marginally higher than the national average of 371 days. The mean of 414 was significantly affected by a very long tail of poor performing dams, as indicated by the 75th percentile of 407 days (national average is 399 days) and a 90th percentile of 631 days (national average of 475). In Orkney there was better technical efficiency in the cattle herd, with a median calving interval of 369 days, a mean of 390 days and a 90th percentile of 434 (meaning only 10% of dams have calving intervals over 434 days). In Shetland median calving interval was 370 days, with a 75th percentile of 451 days and 90th percentile of 451 days.
- Modelling possible support payment rates for the new 410-day calving interval eligibility criteria implies that if a farm or croft has fewer than 1 in 7 cows failing the 410-day eligibility threshold they should not be disadvantaged financially from this new performance condition. On this basis, the smallest herds (7 calves and under) need to have 100% of calves qualifying this new eligibility criteria to see an uplift, but should any calf fail to be eligible due to the 410 criteria they would see support reductions without any minor producer derogation / uplift in support rates.
The download link to this section of the report is found below, or you can return to the main report page here.
